From rival to foe: Why Turkey now views Israel as a threat

Turkey's decision to cut all ties reflects how Ankara now sees Israel not just as a regional rival, but a direct threat to its security and strategic interests

11.09.2025

By Basil AlMohammed

Source:https://www.newarab.com/analysis/rival-foe-why-turkey-now-views-israel-threat

Ankara, Turkey - In a dramatic shift in Turkish–Israeli relations, Ankara announced a full suspension of trade with Israel in late August, the closure of its ports to Israeli shipping, and restrictions on its airspace for Israeli state flights.

While the move was officially framed as a protest against Israel’s genocide in Gaza, analysts argue that it goes far beyond a moral reaction.

Rather, the move reflects mounting domestic pressures on Turkey’s leadership, complex political calculations, and security concerns tied to Syria and Israel’s role there.

The decision followed an emergency session of the Turkish parliament convened to debate Israel’s assault on Gaza, where civilians have endured mass destruction and systematic starvation.

The announcement coincided with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s declaration recognising the Armenian genocide of 1915 - a move seen in Ankara as a calculated provocation aimed at embarrassing Turkey.

While many countries recognise the events as genocide, Turkey rejects the term, acknowledging atrocities but denying a systematic extermination and citing wartime chaos and heavy Turkish losses.

Ankara’s decision reflects “a careful balance between humanitarian considerations and political interests,” Furkan Halit Yoğlu, an international security expert at the Middle East Institute, told The New Arab.

“Historically, Turkey has taken strong positions in support of humanitarian causes, whether in Palestine or in places less tied geographically, such as the plight of Uyghur Muslims in China.”

But he argues that Ankara’s decision cannot be separated from its broader geopolitical ambitions.

“Turkey sees Israel’s expanding regional influence as a direct threat to Middle Eastern stability and its own strategic interests in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean.”

He pointed to Israel’s military operations in Syria since the fall of Bashar Al-Assad, its bombardment of Lebanon, and a push towards annexing the occupied West Bank.

At the emergency session, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the suspension of trade and port closures were a protest against what he described as Israel’s “genocide” and “starvation policy” in Gaza.

“Israel’s genocide represents one of the darkest chapters in human history,” he declared, adding that the crimes had been carried out “in front of the world’s eyes, in blatant disregard for human values and international law”.

The economic fallout

According to Turkey’s Ministry of Trade, bilateral trade with Israel dropped by 32% between 7 October 2023 and 2 May 2024 compared with the same period the previous year. Turkish exports fell by 30%, while imports from Israel plunged by 43.4%.

In December 2023, Trade Minister Omer Bolat revealed that trade volumes had already dropped by more than half, showing that the downturn was gradual rather than sudden.

Former cabinet adviser Cahit Tuz told The New Arab that Israel stands to lose the most from the rupture.

“The $6-7 billion in annual trade benefited Israel far more than Turkey. Imports from Israel were concentrated in military and technological equipment - sectors Turkey now produces domestically at higher quality, reducing its reliance on Israeli goods.”

Tuz added that Israel depends more heavily on Turkish products, raising concerns of price hikes, particularly in food.

“The full impact has yet to be seen, but early indicators suggest that Turkey is betting on its production capacity and alternative markets, while Israel faces serious challenges in local supply chains. This makes the rupture a strategic decision with economic consequences that go well beyond trade flows.”

Is Israel now a threat to Turkey?

For Yoğlu, Turkey’s escalation “is no longer based solely on humanitarian or moral grounds, but on deeper strategic shifts linked to Turkish national security and an intensifying regional contest, particularly in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean”.

Echoing this view, Foreign Minister Fidan warned that allowing Israel to pursue its “reckless attacks in Palestine, especially in Gaza” would not only harm Palestinians but “risk setting the entire region ablaze”.

Tuz agreed, telling The New Arab that Ankara now views Israel not merely as a political rival but as a “direct threat to its regional security”.

He pointed to Israel’s efforts to fragment Syria, including outreach to minority groups such as the Druze of Suweida, while Turkey insists on safeguarding Syria’s territorial unity and securing its southern border against Kurdish groups and demographic shifts.

“Turkey has reached the conclusion that Israel is not just destabilising the region - it is targeting Turkey itself,” Tuz said. “This is not a passing threat, but an existential one.”

He added that Israeli manoeuvres in the Eastern Mediterranean to exclude Turkey from regional gas projects, coupled with its support for a Kurdish “terrorist state” in north-east Syria, underscore that the friction has crossed from politics into hard security.

Turkey has long sought to position itself as a regional energy hub, promoting pipeline projects to bring Gulf gas through its territory to Europe and reduce dependence on Russia.

But Israel, often backed by Washington, has opposed these ambitions by supporting Kurdish autonomy and federalism in Syria and Iraq - moves that undermine territorial continuity needed for pipelines and risk emboldening Kurdish separatism on Turkey’s borders.

Ankara sees this as an effort to engineer a hostile enclave next door.

An unprecedented escalation

Turkey’s rupture with Israel has been unfolding for months. After the Gaza war began in October 2023, Ankara slashed trade by 30%. In April 2024, it banned exports of 1,019 items across 54 sectors. By 2 May, all trade - including transit and free-zone exchanges - was halted.

The escalation also extended to Turkish airspace. In November 2024, Israel’s prime minister was denied overflight rights, forcing him to cancel his attendance at the COP summit in Azerbaijan. The same occurred in May 2025, when another Netanyahu flight was barred from reaching Baku.

Justice and Development Party member and analyst Yusuf Katipoğlu told The New Arab that the latest step covers all Israel-linked planes and ships, including commercial ones.

“This is the continuation of the economic rupture, reflecting a comprehensive political and moral stance.”

What sets this escalation apart, Katipoğlu said, is not only its severity but also its political and popular context.

“As the massacres in Gaza escalated, pressure inside Turkey grew for real action beyond rhetoric, pushing the government to adopt harder, clearer positions in front of its domestic audience.”

He argued that shifting regional dynamics also played a decisive role. “The mounting tension in Syria and Israel’s moves to expand its influence across the region after 7 October forced Turkey to reassess its role and treat Israel as a destabilising actor that can no longer be ignored.”

For Yoğlu, this moment marks a complete break with past precedents. “We are facing a different Syrian landscape, new regional alliances, and a less responsive US president, while Netanyahu sees war as his only way to survive politically. This complicates prospects for de-escalation and makes an unprecedented Turkish escalation unavoidable.”

He added that Ankara’s stance should not remain unilateral. “This must be transformed into collective pressure from international and regional bodies such as the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and BRICS, to enforce a ceasefire and restore balance in the region.”

This story was published in collaboration with Egab.