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Trump eyes Turkiye as an indispensable ally


Despite the S-400 dispute, Trump is betting on Turkiye as the cornerstone of his strategy to reshape the regional order.


13.07.2026
By  MK Bhadrakumar
Source:https://thecradle.co/articles/trump-eyes-turkiye-as-an-indispensable-ally


A rumored weekend announcement in Ankara regarding the fate of the S-400 missile system that Turkiye purchased from Russia has yet to materialize. Ankara is expected to dispose of the system as a condition for rejoining the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program for the US's fifth-generation F-35 stealth fighter.

All we know is that the US is set to resume military sales to Turkiye, NATO’s second-largest military power, after President Donald Trump said at the NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday that sanctions imposed against Ankara over its procurement of the Russian air defense systems seven years ago would soon be lifted.

“We don’t want to sanction friends,” Trump said, while emphasizing his “good chemistry” with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The US president's remarks fueled speculations of a “face-saving” deal in which Ankara would transfer its Russian S-400 systems to a third country.

If the Pentagon was apprehensive that the F-35’s stealth capabilities could be compromised by its exposure to Russian technology, Moscow would likewise have a say in the transfer of its advanced missile technology to a third country.

The S-400 dilemma and Trump's reset

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan paid a three-day visit to Russia in mid-June, where he held talks with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. He also met with Admiral Igor Kostyukov, chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, as well as “a number of … representatives in the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service and in the presidential administration.” Following the meetings, Russian President Vladimir Putin made the exceptional gesture of receiving Fidan in Kazan.

The Kremlin's readout of the meeting in Kazan, which included excerpts from Putin's opening remarks, suggested a warming of Russian–Turkish relations. Ties between the two countries have been strained since the December 2024 regime change in Syria, when Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmad al-Sharaa overthrew Bashar al-Assad and took power. Backed by Turkiye, Sharaa's offensive forced Assad to flee to Moscow.

Interestingly, the Russian reports on Fidan's visit did not mention the transfer of the S-400 missile system as a topic of discussion. Three weeks later, however, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged during his daily press briefing that the issue is “extremely sensitive” and confirmed that Moscow and Ankara have held talks on the matter, with discussions still ongoing. His remarks suggested that the issue remains unresolved: “We have had contacts with the Turkish side on this matter, and we will continue our contacts with the Turkish side on this issue.”

Russia weighs Turkiye's strategic shift

In the best traditions of Russian diplomacy, it stands to reason that the Kremlin's thinking would be evolving in a ‘holistic’ manner. Given Turkiye's familiarity with Russia's diplomatic methods, Fidan may have also carried proposals to Moscow for a possible mediation role between Moscow and Kiev in the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war. In fact, Lavrov disclosed later that “One of the main topics on the international agenda (in the talks with Fidan) was precisely the fact that Turkiye confirmed its interest in not just providing a platform, but being useful in negotiations (between Russia and Ukraine). If, of course, both sides consider it possible.” It is unlikely that Russia is seeking a Turkish mediation role at the present juncture, despite the Trump administration having all but mothballed its peacemaking efforts and instead appearing to double down on providing military and intelligence support to the Ukrainian government — even participating in Ukraine’s long-range missile attacks on Russian territory. Of course, Russian statements in recent days and weeks have bitterly characterized the American shift as a regress harking back to the Biden administration’s agenda to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia in the Ukraine war and erase Moscow's capacity to be an effective player on the global chessboard.

These trends in Russian–American ties will undoubtedly significantly influence the S-400 transfer issue, which is, after all, a symptom of the recent renaissance in the Turkish–American relationship. That revival – driven in large part by the personal rapport between Trump and Erdogan – holds profound consequences for Russian interests across multiple fronts in the region.

Turkiye's expanding role in Trump's regional strategy

Signs of a turbo-charged Turkiye have already begun to surface. Moscow has already had a taste of what Turkiye’s capability to be a swing state entails for the balance of power in the region.

Aside from the regime change in Syria, Turkiye played a decisive role in the tectonic shift in Transcaucasian geopolitics, sidelining Russia, as well as in the US-Israeli war on Iran. Ankara has recently begun recalibrating its standoff with Israel after previously making its airspace available for US aircraft to attack Iran. Going forward, Turkiye will be a crucial protagonist within the ambit of the 1994 Turkish Straits Regulations even as NATO – which has plans for a military confrontation with Russia in the Black Sea – is poised to strengthen its presence in the region. At the same time, the west is striving to consolidate its access to the Caspian Sea, traditionally viewed as a Russian-Iranian ‘lake’, with an eye on Central Asia. These developments are unfolding against a backdrop of strategic convergence between Turkiye and NATO to curtail Russian presence in the East Mediterranean.

To be sure, the interplay of all these factors in Russia's strategic calculus will shape Moscow's thinking on the future ownership of the S-400 system currently in Turkiye. Above all, Russia would also conceivably have the option to buy back the missile system for its own use, provided, of course, the terms of such a transaction can be agreed upon. The point is, much depends on what the provisions of the original Russian–Turkish S-400 deal stipulate.

Nonetheless, Trump is going ahead with the lifting of the CAATSA sanctions on Turkiye to reshape, revive, and boost the Turkish–American military cooperation, regardless of the fate of the S-400 missiles in Ankara’s possession. This would mean that the S-400 issue is no longer such a deal-breaker for the Pentagon. Put differently, this hiccup is less indicative of a shift in Washington's strategy toward Ankara than of a broader US scenario in the pipeline aimed at reshaping NATO, containing Iran, and assigning Turkiye a pivotal role in managing regional crises.

Suffice it to say, no matter the final decision on selling F-35 jets to Turkiye, which, by the way, will also run into formidable headwinds with various lobbies operating in the Beltway — Israeli, Greek, Cypriot, Gulf Arab, Armenian, etc. — moving heaven and earth to stall a deal, Trump is determined to make Turkiye under Erdogan a key ally to strengthen his broader strategy.

Suffice it to say, regardless of the final decision on selling F-35 jets to Turkiye — a move that will also face formidable headwinds from various lobbies operating in the Beltway, including Israeli, Greek, Cypriot, Gulf Arab, and Armenian lobbies, all moving heaven and earth to stall a deal – Trump appears determined to make Turkiye under Erdogan a key ally in advancing his broader strategy.

This is evident in the removal of the congressional hurdle to appeasing Ankara on the integration of General Electric's F110 engines into the KAAN program. The decision is a potential game-changer for Turkiye's hugely ambitious national priority project to develop an indigenous fifth-generation fighter jet, which is already at an advanced stage of development and is expected to enter service in the coming years.