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Possible return of Iraq's Maliki stirs spectres of past chaos and Trump threats
Concern over return of former Iraqi premier exacerbated after Trump threatens to stop helping country if he comes back
28.01.2026
By Alex MacDonald
Source:https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/return-maliki-iraq-spectres-chaos-trump-threats
With Iraq's government-formation process still underway, the prospect of a return to power by Nouri al-Maliki has stoked memories of an era that ended in a terrifying collapse and fears that it could prompt retaliation from Donald Trump.
Maliki was prime minister between 2006 and 2014, until the Islamic State group seized vast areas of Iraq's north and west, exposing the endemic sectarianism and corruption that had hollowed the state out under his watch. He has since headed the influential Dawa party.
When it became clear that the current prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, could not form a new government following elections in November, the Coalition Framework alliance of Shia parties chose Maliki as their new candidate - and therefore presumptive premier.
A planned vote on a new president was shelved on Tuesday, to allow Kurdish parties (who choose the president by convention) to select a candidate.
Once selected, it will be the job of the president to grant a prime ministerial candidate a chance to form a government, and with Maliki the choice of the largest bloc in parliament, it's likely he will get the first shot.
The prospect has caused a stir in Washington, which retains troops in Iraq and has huge influence over its economy.
On Wednesday, Trump wrote on his TruthSocial platform that Maliki's time in power was one of "poverty and total chaos" and warned that if elected, the US "will no longer help Iraq and, if we are not there to help, Iraq has ZERO chance of Success, Prosperity, or Freedom".
In response, Maliki wrote on X that Trump's comments were a "contravention of the democratic order in Iraq since 2003".
"The language of dialogue is the only political option for engagement, not resorting to the language of dictates or threats," he said.
The war of words between Maliki and Trump has only served to highlight the stakes for Iraq.
Allies of Maliki have pointed to his experience in office - notably he is the only Iraqi prime minister to serve two full terms since 2003.
They say he is uniquely experienced to deal with a number of looming crises, including a possible US attack on Iran, and managing attempts to transfer IS prisoners from Syria to Iraq.
Despite being a close ally of Trump's predecessor George W Bush, Maliki is now seen by the US as Iran's man in Baghdad.
And with Washington threatening to sanction Iraq if such a figure comes to power, and memories of his previous tenure still prominent, many are now holding their breath.
On 14 December 2008, journalist Muntazar al-Zaidi made global headlines when he took off his shoes and threw them at Maliki and then-US president George W Bush at a news conference, describing it as "a farewell kiss from the Iraqi people".
Zaidi, who spent nine months in prison for the shoeing, told Middle East Eye that Maliki's time in office had been a "dark period" for Iraq and said he was he was never held accountable for the crimes he committed during that time.
"That period included the squandering of Iraq’s budget, turning his party into an authoritarian force, widespread theft and corruption, and the suppression of freedoms," he said.
"People are worried because this man, who is obsessed with power, was responsible for the nightmares of Iraqis during his dark period in office."
Conflicts and crises
When he first became prime minister, Maliki was seen as a figure who could balance out both US and Iranian interests in Iraq following the 2003 invasion that overthrew longtime ruler Saddam Hussein, whose 2011 execution Maliki oversaw.
During his time in office, Maliki was accused of empowering the Iran-backed paramilitaries who ended up effectively controlling much of the country's economy while repressing dissent and carrying out sectarian violence.
According to the Iraqi Commission of Integrity (CoI), during Maliki's eight-year rule $500bn disappeared from government coffers.
"His political conflicts with other parties, including the Sunnis and the Kurds, and the crises he triggered during his second term ... remain deeply felt," said Zaidi.
The "crises" included the rise of the Islamic State group, which captured the city of Mosul in June 2014, an event that effectively pushed the US to force Maliki from office.
Maliki's goodwill with the US has seemingly evaporated since then. His support from Iran-aligned paramilitaries, some of which have been attacked by US strikes, has made him a target for criticism by the current administration, who have effectively threatened to break off relations with Iraq should a paramilitary-backed government come to office.
"[Maliki's] possible return disrupts the trend since his last premiership of having less powerful politicians serve as prime minister while the leaders of the major parties govern unofficially," said Winthrop Rodgers, a Chatham House associate fellow.
"It also represents the potential return of strong centralised leadership."
Rodgers told MEE that the process of Maliki's selection had been largely "undemocratic" and reflective of intra-Shia dynamics among "partisan elites rather than popular sentiment".
"Sectarian stability in Iraq will largely depend on how Maliki handles himself: whether things rub along messily as they have, break from expectations to reinforce balance and trust between the three ethno-sectarian blocs, or return to the form of when he was last in power," he said.
Silence from Sadr
One voice who has, so far, been conspicuously quiet about Maliki's nomination is his old arch-nemesis, Muqtada al-Sadr.
Maliki's conflict with the influential Shia cleric posed one of the prime threats to the stability of the post-invasion administration in Iraq, as Sadr and his Mahdi Army pushed for the end of US troops in the country and challenged Maliki's authority on the streets.
Even since Maliki left office, the rivalry between the two has not subsided.
After the elections in 2021, and with rumours swirling at that time that Maliki could form a new administration, the two broke out into a furious public row after audio was leaked in which the Dawa party leader was heard describing Sadr as "bloodthirsty" and a "coward" whose political ambitions would destroy Iraq.
This time, however, Sadr - who called on his followers to boycott the November 2025 elections - has yet to comment.
Zaidi, who stood as an MP for Sadr's coalition in 2018, said the Sadr movement's silence has been a surprise.
"Especially since Muqtada al-Sadr has previously expressed his opposition to Maliki returning to power in his tweets," he said.
"We hope that the movement, and Sadr himself, will play a major role in preventing this from happening."
Others have been more clear.
On Tuesday, the Taqadum party - the largest Sunni parliamentary party, led by former speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi - said it would not participate in a government led by figures who "revive the memory of sectarian conflict in Iraq, foster extremism, terrorism, and recurring crises, as well as international and Arab isolation".
Though the statement did not mention Maliki by name, it specifically warned the Coordination Framework against backing politicians who would harm national cohesion and the country's hard-fought-for stability.
Conversely, another influential Sunni party, the Azm Alliance, has voiced its support for Maliki.
"Nouri al-Maliki has a numerical majority within the Shiite Coordination Framework, but he does not enjoy full consensus," said Hayder al-Shakeri, a research fellow with the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House.
"While his bloc gives him a strong starting position in government-formation talks, key actors within the framework remain uneasy about his return and are not openly supportive of him resuming the premiership," he added.
"That internal hesitation matters, because it weakens his bargaining power and complicates efforts to present him as a unifying candidate."
So far, the Iraqi parliament has yet to reach the stage of choosing a president, so the question of whether Maliki will be able to retake the reins of power in Iraq remains up in the air.
Trump's intervention, too, is likely to have an impact - either by changing different actors' positions or hardening them.
Zaidi, for his part, declined to answer when asked if he would throw his shoes at Maliki again.
Concern over return of former Iraqi premier exacerbated after Trump threatens to stop helping country if he comes back
28.01.2026
By Alex MacDonald
Source:https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/return-
With Iraq's government-
Maliki was prime minister between 2006 and 2014, until the Islamic State group seized vast areas of Iraq's north and west, exposing the endemic sectarianism and corruption that had hollowed the state out under his watch. He has since headed the influential Dawa party.
When it became clear that the current prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-
A planned vote on a new president was shelved on Tuesday, to allow Kurdish parties (who choose the president by convention) to select a candidate.
Once selected, it will be the job of the president to grant a prime ministerial candidate a chance to form a government, and with Maliki the choice of the largest bloc in parliament, it's likely he will get the first shot.
The prospect has caused a stir in Washington, which retains troops in Iraq and has huge influence over its economy.
On Wednesday, Trump wrote on his TruthSocial platform that Maliki's time in power was one of "poverty and total chaos" and warned that if elected, the US "will no longer help Iraq and, if we are not there to help, Iraq has ZERO chance of Success, Prosperity, or Freedom".
In response, Maliki wrote on X that Trump's comments were a "contravention of the democratic order in Iraq since 2003".
"The language of dialogue is the only political option for engagement, not resorting to the language of dictates or threats," he said.
The war of words between Maliki and Trump has only served to highlight the stakes for Iraq.
Allies of Maliki have pointed to his experience in office -
They say he is uniquely experienced to deal with a number of looming crises, including a possible US attack on Iran, and managing attempts to transfer IS prisoners from Syria to Iraq.
Despite being a close ally of Trump's predecessor George W Bush, Maliki is now seen by the US as Iran's man in Baghdad.
And with Washington threatening to sanction Iraq if such a figure comes to power, and memories of his previous tenure still prominent, many are now holding their breath.
On 14 December 2008, journalist Muntazar al-
Zaidi, who spent nine months in prison for the shoeing, told Middle East Eye that Maliki's time in office had been a "dark period" for Iraq and said he was he was never held accountable for the crimes he committed during that time.
"That period included the squandering of Iraq’s budget, turning his party into an authoritarian force, widespread theft and corruption, and the suppression of freedoms," he said.
"People are worried because this man, who is obsessed with power, was responsible for the nightmares of Iraqis during his dark period in office."
Conflicts and crises
When he first became prime minister, Maliki was seen as a figure who could balance out both US and Iranian interests in Iraq following the 2003 invasion that overthrew longtime ruler Saddam Hussein, whose 2011 execution Maliki oversaw.
During his time in office, Maliki was accused of empowering the Iran-
According to the Iraqi Commission of Integrity (CoI), during Maliki's eight-
"His political conflicts with other parties, including the Sunnis and the Kurds, and the crises he triggered during his second term ... remain deeply felt," said Zaidi.
The "crises" included the rise of the Islamic State group, which captured the city of Mosul in June 2014, an event that effectively pushed the US to force Maliki from office.
Maliki's goodwill with the US has seemingly evaporated since then. His support from Iran-
"[Maliki's] possible return disrupts the trend since his last premiership of having less powerful politicians serve as prime minister while the leaders of the major parties govern unofficially," said Winthrop Rodgers, a Chatham House associate fellow.
"It also represents the potential return of strong centralised leadership."
Rodgers told MEE that the process of Maliki's selection had been largely "undemocratic" and reflective of intra-
"Sectarian stability in Iraq will largely depend on how Maliki handles himself: whether things rub along messily as they have, break from expectations to reinforce balance and trust between the three ethno-
Silence from Sadr
One voice who has, so far, been conspicuously quiet about Maliki's nomination is his old arch-
Maliki's conflict with the influential Shia cleric posed one of the prime threats to the stability of the post-
Even since Maliki left office, the rivalry between the two has not subsided.
After the elections in 2021, and with rumours swirling at that time that Maliki could form a new administration, the two broke out into a furious public row after audio was leaked in which the Dawa party leader was heard describing Sadr as "bloodthirsty" and a "coward" whose political ambitions would destroy Iraq.
This time, however, Sadr -
Zaidi, who stood as an MP for Sadr's coalition in 2018, said the Sadr movement's silence has been a surprise.
"Especially since Muqtada al-
"We hope that the movement, and Sadr himself, will play a major role in preventing this from happening."
Others have been more clear.
On Tuesday, the Taqadum party -
Though the statement did not mention Maliki by name, it specifically warned the Coordination Framework against backing politicians who would harm national cohesion and the country's hard-
Conversely, another influential Sunni party, the Azm Alliance, has voiced its support for Maliki.
"Nouri al-
"While his bloc gives him a strong starting position in government-
"That internal hesitation matters, because it weakens his bargaining power and complicates efforts to present him as a unifying candidate."
So far, the Iraqi parliament has yet to reach the stage of choosing a president, so the question of whether Maliki will be able to retake the reins of power in Iraq remains up in the air.
Trump's intervention, too, is likely to have an impact -
Zaidi, for his part, declined to answer when asked if he would throw his shoes at Maliki again.