From votes to vetoes: The race for Iraq's next prime minister

Despite elections, Iraq's democracy is constrained, with the prime minister decided not by voters but by domestic elites and international patrons

25.11.2025

By Dana Taib Menmy

Source:https://www.newarab.com/analysis/votes-vetoes-race-iraqs-next-prime-minister

Iraq’s next prime minister remains undetermined following parliamentary elections in early November, with the decision hinging on negotiations within the Coordination Framework, a political alliance of Shia parties, and pressure from Iran and the US.

Both outgoing PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and former PM Nouri al-Maliki are considered candidates, but their prospects are weak, analysts say.

Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition won 46 seats, forming the largest bloc in parliament. Maliki’s State of Law coalition holds 29 seats, and the Shia Dawa Party has formally nominated him for a third term.

Despite these positions, both Sudani and Maliki could encounter major obstacles within the Coordination Framework, the umbrella group of pro-Iran Shia factions that includes Sudani’s bloc and asserts its right to nominate Iraq’s next prime minister.

The United States, meanwhile, has increased its involvement in Iraq’s government formation. Mark Savaya, the US president’s special envoy to Iraq, has announced plans to visit Baghdad and emphasised that Washington will closely monitor the process.

"I look forward to visiting Iraq soon and meeting with the key leaders. Iraq has made significant progress over the past three years, and we hope to see this progress continue in the coming months. At the same time, we are carefully watching the process of forming the new government," he wrote on the X social media platform last week.

Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission is reviewing over 872 legal challenges to the official results within three weeks. Once these are resolved, Iraq’s Supreme Federal Court is expected to certify the results and begin the formal process of cabinet formation.

Constitutional process and political reality

Iraq’s constitution outlines the process for government formation. Once the Supreme Federal Court approves the election results, the new parliament has 15 days to convene and elect a speaker.

Within 30 days, it must select a president by a two-thirds majority, who then has 15 days to nominate a prime minister from the largest parliamentary bloc. The Court has clarified that the "largest bloc" may be a single pre-election list or a coalition formed after MPs are sworn in. Its decision is final and binding.

Despite constitutional procedures, a consensus within the Coordination Framework, together with external influences, often determines Iraq’s leadership, not the popular vote.

"The Shia landscape within the Coordination Framework is highly unsettled and fractured due to growing American pressure on Iran and its regional axis," Ahmed Al-Adhadh, an Iraqi political observer, told The New Arab.

"Al-Sudani is rejected for a second term as prime minister because there is no American–Iranian consensus on his reappointment, pending the outcome of negotiations between the two sides regarding the nuclear file, sanctions, Iran’s geopolitical position, and regional economic alliances, including Israel, which is a key player in shaping the new Middle East map."

Al-Adhadh also pointed out that opposition from Muqtada al-Sadr and the Gulf states to Maliki’s third-term bid complicates finding a candidate within the Coordination Framework who is acceptable to all major stakeholders, including Sunni, Kurdish, regional, and international players.

Factional influences and Sadr's role

Despite boycotting the recent elections, Muqtada al-Sadr remains highly influential. His movement won 73 seats in 2021 but was unable to form a majority government, even after aligning with Sunni leader Mohammed Al-Halbusi and Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani’s blocs.

After violent clashes in Baghdad between Sadr’s supporters and Iran-backed militias, which killed more than 40 people, Sadr announced his withdrawal from politics. Analysts say he remains powerful because he can quickly mobilise street support.

Kurdish political analyst Mohammed Hawrami further highlighted the structural constraints in Iraq’s political system.

"According to the norms that govern Iraq’s politics, those who have more seats in the Parliament have fewer chances to become the PM. So far, no Iraqi PM was elected who had a parliamentary bloc," he told TNA.

"This time, it is not impossible, but it is very difficult for either Al-Sudani or Al-Maliki to win a second term. One reason is that the PM should, for every decision, return to the CF. Consequently, all parties will agree on a compromised candidate who has no parliamentary seats or few seats."

Hawrami added that Sadr’s influence means that all parties will take his views into account, confirming that Jaafar al-Sadr, Iraq’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, is a possible compromise candidate.

Other possible candidates are former prime ministers Mostafa al-Kadhimi and Haider al-Abadi. Kadhimi reportedly enjoys support from Masoud Barzani and has strong ties to the US.

However, Iran-backed groups oppose him, accusing him of complicity in the 2020 US strike that killed Iranian commander Qassem Suleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

Additional candidates include Hamid al-Shatri, head of Iraq’s National Intelligence Agency, and Qassem al-Araji, National Security Advisor, though analysts say their close ties to Iran may reduce their prospects.

Domestically, Iraq faces pressing challenges, including heavy public debt, liquidity shortages, and US demands that militias operating outside state control be dismantled.

Maliki recently stated in a television interview that he supports bringing all armed groups under the prime minister’s control and transferring their heavy weapons to the Iraqi army - widely seen as an attempt to reassure Washington.

Nevertheless, his political record remains controversial; he is blamed for the collapse of the Iraqi army in 2014 and the Islamic State (IS) takeover of a third of Iraq’s territory.

During the election campaign, Sudani emphasised his ability to shield Iraq from regional conflicts. Maliki and Araji, meanwhile, urged Iraq to maintain neutrality and avoid regional polarisation.

Analysts say regional stability will be a key factor in determining Iraq’s next government, particularly given US demands for the dissolution of Iran-backed militias and curbing Tehran’s influence.

Bargaining for power

Ahmed Al-Saedi, professor of political science and international relations, offered a structural perspective of Iraq’s elections.

"What Iraqis are saying is accurate. Political experience has entrenched a pattern in which election results are marginalised in favour of understandings negotiated outside the popular will. For years, the position of prime minister has effectively been determined by Iran’s conditions of approval before any other consideration," he told TNA.

"That is why democracy appears largely superficial, because the final decision is not made by the voter but by agreements among dominant power centres and the calculations of external actors."

Al-Saedi also highlighted the evolving role of the United States. "The US has become more serious about limiting Iranian influence, and this is evident in the recent sanctions on economic networks linked to armed factions, most importantly the Muhandis Company, which has significant economic weight in supporting Iran’s project in Iraq, as well as in the direct role played by President Trump’s envoy, Savaya."

Washington considers dismantling Iranian-backed armed factions as part of a broader stability project and a way to prevent Tehran from influencing the selection of Iraq’s leadership, the political expert said.

“With mounting political and economic pressure, reducing the factions’ influence and ending their parallel role to the state now appears to be only a matter of time."

Most analysts now expect the next prime minister to be a compromise choice: someone with minimal parliamentary representation but broad acceptance by key Iraqi and international players.

In Iraq, democracy is constrained by political structures and foreign involvement. Although elections are held, the premiership is ultimately determined by influential domestic groups and international actors.