Sadr warns Iraq could collapse in 12 hours as tensions rise with elections inching closer

On Monday, Sadr announced via his social media accounts that this election would be Iraq's first without the Shia National Movement.

30.09.2025

By Dana Taib Menmy

Source:https://www.newarab.com/news/sadr-warns-iraq-could-collapse-12-hours-amid-rising-tensions

Muqtada al-Sadr, a leading Shia cleric, denied reports of an assassination attempt and directly warned that political infighting is pushing Iraq closer to collapse. He demanded that leaders focus urgently on national priorities.

He dismissed reports of an alleged assassination plot, describing them as a form of incitement before the elections, and reaffirmed calls for stability and the need to focus on national priorities.

On Monday, Sadr announced via his social media accounts that this election would be Iraq's first without the Shia National Movement, which contributed to increased uncertainty and unsettled politicians. He accused some parties of seeking unrest or postponement to avoid unfavourable results.

Sadr further stated, "We are prepared for escalation if necessary. Your threats do not intimidate us, your actions do not deter us," addressing his rivals.

The same day, Sadr visited the Najaf shrine of his late father, Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Sadiq al-Sadr, disregarding the rumoured assassination plot. Furthermore, his office released photos of him at the shrine with aides and supporters, widely seen as a response to an alleged assassination plot.

On Sunday night, tension increased when exiled activist Ali Fadhel claimed on a broadcast that he knew of a plot involving Yasser Skhail, a lawmaker from rival Nouri Al-Maliki's State of Law Coalition, to use a drone to assassinate Sadr during an impending shrine visit.

Following Fadhel's broadcast, fighters from Saraya al-Salam, al-Sadr's armed group, deployed across Basra late that evening. This show of force increased public concern about possible escalation.

In response, MP Yasser al-Maliki issued a statement rejecting the accusation as "fabrications and lies aimed at creating sedition." He vowed to pursue legal action against those spreading the claims.

Governance failures

Sadr sharply warned Iraq's leaders that focusing on power instead of solving urgent crises—such as water shortages, pollution, deteriorating electricity blackouts, weak healthcare, poor education, and a struggling economy—will endanger the nation.

He warned Iraqi factions to heed lessons from Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran, insisting Iraq is in greater danger.

He also cautioned that Iraq would not be far from the developments in the area if the ruling elites prioritised trivial things over what is most important to be done.

"If the Islamic Republic [of Iran] was damaged during the 12-day war, Iraq could collapse within 12 hours," Sadr stressed.

Addressing the rumours, Sadr denied any drone strike plots during shrine visits and warned his rivals that such actions would only backfire, emphasising his followers' discipline and refusal to incite sedition.

He insisted the rumours would not incite sedition and said his loyalists remain disciplined: "We love our country, wish it no harm, and will not engage in discord; our followers are always conscious and obedient."

He warned that widespread weapons among tribes and militias endanger Iraqis, and criticised the ruling parties for postponing the passage of the controversial draft law to regulate the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF). Furthermore, he warned that Iraq's security forces have been infiltrated without further clarifications and stressed that Iraq's most significant challenges are terrorism, efforts to normalise with Israel, sectarianism, extremism, and adherence to the foreign axis.

The Iraqi government, led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, recently withdrew the bill from parliament after the US severely rejected it, stating that if the bill were to become law, it would bolster Iran’s influence over the PMF.

Sadr also urgently called on rivals to stop disputes and unite, stressing that unchecked corruption, unemployment, and extremism threaten Iraq's survival.

Sadr challenged politicians to prove their commitment to Iraq, urging them to prioritise the country's survival over personal gain and ambition.

Late on Monday night, supporters of Sadr gathered in front of Baghdad's Green Zone.

Altogether, this incident underscores instability ahead of Iraq's elections. As rival groups trade accusations, the risk of mass mobilisation grows if tensions persist, directly linking these events to broader electoral concerns.

Sadr's political manoeuvres have a significant history.

In the early elections held on 10 October 2021, Sadr's bloc emerged victorious, securing 73 seats. He pledged to establish a "national majority" government in collaboration with several Sunni and Kurdish blocs, indicating disagreements with other Shia factions aligned with Iran.

However, unable to fulfil this promise, Sadr instructed lawmakers from his bloc to resign, which they did on 12 June 2022. This led to violent clashes in Iraq's capital between militias loyal to Sadr and Iran-backed factions, turning Baghdad into a battleground. Not long after, Sadr announced he is quitting politics.

With elections near, Sadr's words highlight that unresolved power struggles could escalate into unrest across Iraq.