Shift US strategy in the Middle East from a reactive to proactive posture

30.09.2024

By Brian Katulis

Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy

Source: https://www.mei.edu/blog/special-briefing-nasrallah-killing-reshapes-regional-power-balance

- The Biden administration has been a bystander to the events taking place in the Middle East; September 2024 will be remembered as the month when the limits of diplomacy espoused and advanced by the administration were fully exposed.

- As the US decides how to proceed, the most important thing is to move toward a more proactive stance that seeks to shape events, rather than react to them.

The Israeli strike that killed Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, on Friday, combined with a series of military strikes it has conducted in September in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and the Gaza Strip, represent a bold and risky move by Israel to restore a sense of strategic deterrence against its adversaries. It remains unclear whether these moves will produce more stability or chaos for the people of the region — in the short term, the people of Lebanon are already facing difficult circumstances that will likely only worsen if Israel proceeds with a ground offensive.

September 2024 will be remembered as the month when the limits of diplomacy espoused and advanced by the Biden administration were fully exposed.

The Biden administration has largely been a bystander to these events — one that has supplied Israel with the military means to conduct these operations but has been repeatedly caught by surprise by its actions. Regional actors continue to be the main drivers of events: Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis have all taken steps that more directly affect the fates of millions of people, while the United States is caught in a reactive, crisis management posture. America seems to lack the strategic focus and will to use its leverage to fundamentally shift dynamics.

What should the United States do next? The most important thing is to move toward a more proactive stance that seeks to shape events, rather than react to them.

- Prepare for worst-case scenarios and protect Americans. The first step is necessarily reactive, however. The military escalation should prompt the United States to heighten its defenses and security against possible attacks in the region and also in the United States. Hezbollah is a terrorist organization that has developed networks inside of the US, and these networks have engaged in plots in the past. This means that US intelligence agencies and law enforcement need to move toward a more heightened footing at a sensitive time just weeks before an election that has already seen assassination attempts and gun violence. America needs to use its extensive military presence and contacts across the region to encourage deterrence and prevent a wider regional war. The United States is doing this already, but it needs to link these military capabilities more closely together with key military partners in the region to deter threats from Iran and its networks.

- Work with regional partners to advance diplomacy that incentivizes restraint, prevents a wider regional war, and builds a diplomatic offramp. America should also prioritize some of the same diplomatic steps it was engaged in with partners in the region and around the world to avoid a wider war before this attack. Just before the Israeli strike that killed Nasrallah, it brought together a disparate set of countries in a plan for a 21-day cease-fire, a proposal that Israel obviously rejected last week in word and deed. A key center of gravity in helping advance restraint will be the Arab Gulf states and countries like Jordan and Egypt that do not want to see a direct conventional war between Israel and Iran. Speaking in one voice diplomatically, combined with the right mix of security measures to deter Iran and its network, will be essential. More precisely this could mean sending the US secretary of state to meet with his counterparts in the Middle East to present a new framework for a cease-fire, coupled with security measures aimed at incentivizing restraint by all parties.

- Plan for the future of Lebanon. It’s not too early for America to start working with partners to help win the peace when this conflict is over. It’s what is built and created that matters more than what’s eliminated and destroyed in defining the future. Although it seems like the war in Lebanon may only be in its early days, the United States should work with others to center the people of Lebanon in policy discussions and make plans to deliver emergency assistance in this crisis but also prepare for a new future that secures peace in Lebanon and strengthens its government’s capacity to provide security and other essential services.

The United States has witnessed the limits of its reactive approach to the Middle East over the past year, and it should work with some of its closest regional partners to limit the damage, contain the growing conflict, and plan for a more stable future.

Follow: @Katulis