[OPINION] Erdoğan’s last card: the Kurdish question as a political tool

03.07.2025

By Turkish Minute

Source:https://www.turkishminute.com/2025/07/03/opinion-erdogans-last-card-the-kurdish-question-as-a-political-tool/

*Adem Yavuz Arslan

A recent announcement from the two Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) executives suggesting that the outlawed group will soon destroy their weapons as a “goodwill gesture” to signal their commitment to lay down their arms after decades of conflict with Turkey has sparked cautious optimism in some quarters and deep skepticism in others. Yet for international observers, this development cannot be viewed in isolation. It is inseparable from Turkey’s worsening domestic crisis, the country’s accelerating authoritarian drift and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s urgent need to reposition himself ahead of a potential re-election bid under highly contested circumstances.

A complex historical background

The PKK, designated a terrorist organization by Turkey and its Western allies, has waged an armed insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984, seeking autonomy or independence for Kurds. Over the decades, the conflict has cost more than 40,000 lives and left a deep scar on the country’s socio-political fabric. Multiple attempts at ceasefire and peace negotiations, most notably the 2013–2015 “settlement process,” have collapsed, largely due to mutual distrust, domestic political pressures and shifting regional dynamics, particularly in Syria and Iraq.

Why now?

The timing of the PKK’s announcement of its “goodwill gesture”  is not incidental. Turkey is grappling with its worst economic crisis in decades. The cost of living in the country remains painful for many, even as official data suggest inflation is on a downward trend after reaching record highs in recent years, the Turkish lira has lost significant value and foreign investors continue to flee. Meanwhile, Erdoğan’s political alliance, the so-called “People’s Alliance” with ultranationalist political parties, is faltering. His approval ratings have slipped and opposition parties have made unexpected gains, even in conservative strongholds.

To complicate matters, Erdoğan faces a constitutional dilemma. Under the current Turkish Constitution, he is not eligible to run for another term unless the parliament calls early elections, a move that would require either opposition support or a strategic gambit that reshapes the legal playing field. To secure such a change, Erdoğan may need to broaden his appeal beyond his shrinking nationalist-Islamist base.

The Kurdish card, again

This is where the Kurdish question resurfaces. In the past Erdoğan has vacillated between repression and outreach. His earlier peace overtures toward the Kurds, once hailed as historic, were abandoned in favor of militarized operations in predominantly Kurdish cities and legal assaults on Kurdish political figures, particularly after a coup attempt in 2016.

Now, with his political survival at stake, Erdoğan appears to be repositioning himself as a peacemaker once again. But critics argue that this is less about solving the Kurdish issue by granting cultural and political rights to Kurds and more about regaining political capital. A symbolic gesture from the PKK, especially if orchestrated through backchannel negotiations, could help Erdoğan present himself as the leader who ended Turkey’s decades-long conflict, just in time for a constitutional or electoral maneuver.

The democratic paradox

Yet this strategy is riddled with contradictions. Erdoğan continues to tighten his grip on power, jailing journalists, banning opposition figures and eroding judicial independence. Any promise to resolve the Kurdish issue while escalating authoritarian measures undermines his credibility. Political analysts warn that such moves risk turning the peace process into a transactional, top-down exercise rather than a genuine societal transformation. The deeper concern is that as in previous cycles, the government may use symbolic gestures from the PKK as leverage while offering little in the way of structural reforms or cultural rights for Kurds. In this view, peace becomes a campaign slogan rather than a constitutional commitment.

Regional dimensions

This announcement also comes amid shifting regional dynamics. Turkey’s involvement in northern Iraq and Syria, ostensibly to combat Kurdish militias affiliated with the PKK, has given it strategic depth but also complicated its relationships with Western allies and regional actors. The PKK’s decision to lay down arms may also be aimed at resetting Turkey’s image abroad, particularly as Erdoğan faces increasing isolation on the international stage. Meanwhile, Russia, traditionally influential in regional politics, appears sidelined in this process.

Will it be just symbolic?

While the idea of the PKK laying down arms would mark a welcome step toward peace, the timing and political context raise unavoidable questions. Is this truly a pivot toward reconciliation, or another calculated move by a president cornered by economic collapse and constitutional deadlock?

Erdoğan has turned the Kurdish question into a political instrument before, and many fear history is repeating itself. Without democratic reforms, judicial independence and real guarantees for Kurdish political and cultural rights, any ceasefire risks becoming another performance in Erdoğan’s survival playbook.

Symbolism without substance is not peace, it’s a pause. And in Turkey’s fractured democracy, pauses rarely last.

*Adem Yavuz Arslan is a journalist with over two decades of experience in political reporting, investigative journalism and international conflict coverage. His work has focused on Turkey’s political landscape, including detailed reporting on the 2016 coup attempt and its aftermath, as well as broader issues related to media freedom and human rights. He has reported from conflict zones such as Bosnia, Kosovo and Iraq, and has conducted in-depth research on high-profile cases, including the assassination of Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink. Arslan is the author of four books and has received journalism awards for his investigative work. Currently living in exile in Washington, D.C., he continues his journalism through digital media platforms, including his YouTube channel, Turkish Minute, TR724 and X.