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Why Israel's war to reshape Iran is a reckless gamble
Billed as a war on Iran's nuclear programme, analysts say Israel's underlying goal is regime change, with the spotlight now on what the US does next
16.06.2025
By Giorgio Cafiero*
Source:https://www.newarab.com/analysis/why-israels-war-reshape-iran-reckless-gamble
On the morning of 13 June, Israel started a full-blown war with Iran. The Israeli aggression targeted Tehran and other places in the country while catching the Islamic Republic’s leadership flat-footed.
But Israel’s ‘Operation Rising Lion’ has been anything but a knockout. On day one, Iran scrambled to activate its air defences, reshuffled its command after losing top brass, and launched a blistering counterattack.
Less than 18 hours after Israel's opening salvo, Iranian missiles lit up Tel Aviv’s skyline, hitting strategic sites such as the Ministry of Defence and punching through Israel’s vaunted defence systems.
The rapid retaliation underscored just how fleeting Israel’s early advantage really was at the very beginning of the war. Now, with neither side blinking, the conflict is rapidly escalating with mounting casualties in both Iran and Israel. Concerns about this war becoming drawn out appear increasingly valid.
In the first few days of the conflict, Israel’s military mostly focused on striking Iran’s nuclear sites, military bases, and missile factories, while taking out top military commanders and nuclear scientists.
But now with the war having entered its fourth day, the scope has dramatically widened with the Israelis striking against Iran’s aviation, electronics, and aerospace sectors - alongside energy facilities, manufacturing plants, government buildings, and police stations. Israel targeting the South Pars gas field and the Shahran oil depot quickly sent oil markets into shock.
Iranians, who were already grappling with a battered economy, will greatly suffer as these escalating attacks on civilian infrastructure threaten to make daily life unbearably difficult.
On 15 June, Israel hit northeastern Iran’s Hashemi Nejad International Airport in Mashhad, located 2,300 kilometres from the Jewish state. Tel Aviv’s clear message is that this war is expanding and escalating, and no corner of Iran's infrastructure is off-limits.
Iranians who lived through the ‘War of the Cities’ in the 1980s are reminded of their traumatic experiences amid the Iran-Iraq war, which followed the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
With this current war not even a week old, Tehran has become a semi-deserted city because waves of residents are fleeing the capital, which is being subjected to the type of Israeli terror known all too well by the people of Gaza and Beirut’s southern suburbs.
Although Iran’s casualty rate is currently significantly higher than Israel’s, the Islamic Republic’s fierce response has caused chaos and panic across Israel. Iranian missiles have overwhelmed Israeli air defence systems and pounded Tel Aviv, Haifa, Ashkelon, Bat Yam, and other parts of Israel, hitting residential buildings.
Iran has attacked one of Israel’s oil refineries and damaged part of the country’s power grid. Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport remains shuttered while explosions and fires wreak havoc across the country.
Mojtaba Zarei, a member of Iran’s parliamentary national security committee, has called for avenging Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and the killing of its nuclear scientists by waging a military strike on the Negev Nuclear Research Centre near the Israeli city of Dimona.
Israel's Iranian regime change fantasy
Although Israel officially launched this war under the banner of eliminating the threat of a “nuclear holocaust”, many analysts see regime change in Tehran as Tel Aviv’s underlying goal.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rhetoric and messages directed at the Iranian citizenry since 13 June aim to convince Iran’s population that this war is against the Islamic Republic, as opposed to Iran as a country. His objective is to pit the general public against the government in Tehran.
“I believe that Israel hopes that its strikes would create panic and anger among the population and potentially turn them against the regime. Israel's long-term goal is Iran's disintegration,” said Dr Shireen Hunter, an honorary fellow at the Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding at Georgetown University who served as an Iranian diplomat before 1979, in an interview with The New Arab.
But many analysts believe that this strategy is misguided and likely to backfire. Rather than prompting Iranians to see Israel’s war on their country as an opportunity to topple their government, Iran experts note that a rally-around-the-flag effect is taking place and the more Iranian blood that Israel spills in Tehran and other parts of the country will serve to further unify Iranians, including those who have no love for the regime that’s ruled since 1979.
“The killing of at least 224 Iranians since [13 June] has once again significantly damaged Israel's claim that it avoids targeting civilians. Israel's illegal attack on the Iranian people will definitely not result in a popular uprising against the Iranian state. On the contrary, Iranians are coming together behind the Islamic Republic,” Dr Shirin Saeidi, an associate professor of Political Science at the University of Arkansas, told TNA.
“Former political prisoners, children of political prisoners, students, and women are coming out in support of their nation and state. It seems that Israel and its advisors made a terrible miscalculation on this issue,” she added.
Will the US restrain Israel or join the fight?
With Iran refusing to back down in the face of Israeli aggression - and proving it can wage powerful counterattacks - the spotlight is on Washington. Will the Trump administration step in to dial down tensions and rein in Israel while leaning on Gulf Arab, Turkish, and/or Russian backchannels? Or is the White House poised to throw the US military’s weight behind Israel in a full-scale confrontation with the Islamic Republic?
Israel has yet to secure a decisive victory, and may never do so as the conflict drags on. Within this context, Netanyahu is likely to do everything in his power to draw the US into the war, aiming to avoid a prolonged battle of attrition that could ultimately tilt in Tehran’s favour. Trump has stated his preference for a deal between Israel and Iran.
But he has not ruled out the option of getting the US military more directly involved in this war beyond helping Israel defend itself from Tehran’s retaliation.
“It appears that the Trump administration's strategic assessments failed to account for several critical variables, including Iran's military power, and societal dynamics,” explained Dr Saeidi.
Diplomacy and the nuclear bomb
The Trump administration seems to think that this Israeli aggression against Iran will help Washington extract concessions from Tehran in the nuclear negotiations, which began in Oman in April.
However, Tel Aviv’s decision to wage this war with support from the White House and many American lawmakers has predictably led to the Iranians refusing to move ahead with nuclear talks - the sixth round of which was to be held on 15 June in Muscat.
Rather than seeking de-escalation, Iran is hellbent on revenge. A common view held by Iranians is that the US was not negotiating in good faith during the nuclear talks held this year in Oman and Italy, and the Trump administration was instead just seeking to catch the Iranians off guard with the US-backed Israeli war on the Islamic Republic.
As such, it is only all the more difficult to imagine Tehran concluding that there is anything good for Iran which can come out of negotiations with the Americans.
“Trump made a serious mistake by green lightning the Israeli war thinking him staying out of it would get him to have the cake (supporting Israel tacitly) and eat it too (‘softening up’ Tehran before the next round of negotiations),” Dr Rouzbeh Parsi, an adjunct senior lecturer at Lund University, told TNA.
Here lies some irony. While Washington and Tel Aviv insist that they’re acting to stop Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear bomb, the Islamic Republic’s boldest response to Israel’s ‘Operation Rising Lion’ might be to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
As the war stretches into its next phase, calls within Iran to follow in North Korea’s footsteps and exit the NPT are growing louder. Many Iranians see the Israeli war on their country as further evidence that remaining an NPT signatory has brought Iran no security, only vulnerability to its enemies. An argument gaining traction in Iran is that only nuclear deterrence can keep the country safe.
Iran pulling out of the NPT “strikes me as being a predictable response to Israel and the United States,” said Dr Nader Hashemi, director of Georgetown University’s Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding, in a TNA interview.
“[Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei refused to make a decision, like so often, on the issue of nuclear deterrence and now they are paying the price of hovering in the worst of two worlds. But going forward I think it’s safe to say the choice has been made for them - it’s highly likely that they will go for a bomb now,” concluded Dr Parsi.
*Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics
Follow him on X: @GiorgioCafiero
Billed as a war on Iran's nuclear programme, analysts say Israel's underlying goal is regime change, with the spotlight now on what the US does next
16.06.2025
By Giorgio Cafiero*
Source:https://www.newarab.com/analysis/why-
On the morning of 13 June, Israel started a full-
But Israel’s ‘Operation Rising Lion’ has been anything but a knockout. On day one, Iran scrambled to activate its air defences, reshuffled its command after losing top brass, and launched a blistering counterattack.
Less than 18 hours after Israel's opening salvo, Iranian missiles lit up Tel Aviv’s skyline, hitting strategic sites such as the Ministry of Defence and punching through Israel’s vaunted defence systems.
The rapid retaliation underscored just how fleeting Israel’s early advantage really was at the very beginning of the war. Now, with neither side blinking, the conflict is rapidly escalating with mounting casualties in both Iran and Israel. Concerns about this war becoming drawn out appear increasingly valid.
In the first few days of the conflict, Israel’s military mostly focused on striking Iran’s nuclear sites, military bases, and missile factories, while taking out top military commanders and nuclear scientists.
But now with the war having entered its fourth day, the scope has dramatically widened with the Israelis striking against Iran’s aviation, electronics, and aerospace sectors -
Iranians, who were already grappling with a battered economy, will greatly suffer as these escalating attacks on civilian infrastructure threaten to make daily life unbearably difficult.
On 15 June, Israel hit northeastern Iran’s Hashemi Nejad International Airport in Mashhad, located 2,300 kilometres from the Jewish state. Tel Aviv’s clear message is that this war is expanding and escalating, and no corner of Iran's infrastructure is off-
Iranians who lived through the ‘War of the Cities’ in the 1980s are reminded of their traumatic experiences amid the Iran-
With this current war not even a week old, Tehran has become a semi-
Although Iran’s casualty rate is currently significantly higher than Israel’s, the Islamic Republic’s fierce response has caused chaos and panic across Israel. Iranian missiles have overwhelmed Israeli air defence systems and pounded Tel Aviv, Haifa, Ashkelon, Bat Yam, and other parts of Israel, hitting residential buildings.
Iran has attacked one of Israel’s oil refineries and damaged part of the country’s power grid. Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport remains shuttered while explosions and fires wreak havoc across the country.
Mojtaba Zarei, a member of Iran’s parliamentary national security committee, has called for avenging Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and the killing of its nuclear scientists by waging a military strike on the Negev Nuclear Research Centre near the Israeli city of Dimona.
Israel's Iranian regime change fantasy
Although Israel officially launched this war under the banner of eliminating the threat of a “nuclear holocaust”, many analysts see regime change in Tehran as Tel Aviv’s underlying goal.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rhetoric and messages directed at the Iranian citizenry since 13 June aim to convince Iran’s population that this war is against the Islamic Republic, as opposed to Iran as a country. His objective is to pit the general public against the government in Tehran.
“I believe that Israel hopes that its strikes would create panic and anger among the population and potentially turn them against the regime. Israel's long-
But many analysts believe that this strategy is misguided and likely to backfire. Rather than prompting Iranians to see Israel’s war on their country as an opportunity to topple their government, Iran experts note that a rally-
“The killing of at least 224 Iranians since [13 June] has once again significantly damaged Israel's claim that it avoids targeting civilians. Israel's illegal attack on the Iranian people will definitely not result in a popular uprising against the Iranian state. On the contrary, Iranians are coming together behind the Islamic Republic,” Dr Shirin Saeidi, an associate professor of Political Science at the University of Arkansas, told TNA.
“Former political prisoners, children of political prisoners, students, and women are coming out in support of their nation and state. It seems that Israel and its advisors made a terrible miscalculation on this issue,” she added.
Will the US restrain Israel or join the fight?
With Iran refusing to back down in the face of Israeli aggression -
Israel has yet to secure a decisive victory, and may never do so as the conflict drags on. Within this context, Netanyahu is likely to do everything in his power to draw the US into the war, aiming to avoid a prolonged battle of attrition that could ultimately tilt in Tehran’s favour. Trump has stated his preference for a deal between Israel and Iran.
But he has not ruled out the option of getting the US military more directly involved in this war beyond helping Israel defend itself from Tehran’s retaliation.
“It appears that the Trump administration's strategic assessments failed to account for several critical variables, including Iran's military power, and societal dynamics,” explained Dr Saeidi.
Diplomacy and the nuclear bomb
The Trump administration seems to think that this Israeli aggression against Iran will help Washington extract concessions from Tehran in the nuclear negotiations, which began in Oman in April.
However, Tel Aviv’s decision to wage this war with support from the White House and many American lawmakers has predictably led to the Iranians refusing to move ahead with nuclear talks -
Rather than seeking de-
As such, it is only all the more difficult to imagine Tehran concluding that there is anything good for Iran which can come out of negotiations with the Americans.
“Trump made a serious mistake by green lightning the Israeli war thinking him staying out of it would get him to have the cake (supporting Israel tacitly) and eat it too (‘softening up’ Tehran before the next round of negotiations),” Dr Rouzbeh Parsi, an adjunct senior lecturer at Lund University, told TNA.
Here lies some irony. While Washington and Tel Aviv insist that they’re acting to stop Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear bomb, the Islamic Republic’s boldest response to Israel’s ‘Operation Rising Lion’ might be to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-
As the war stretches into its next phase, calls within Iran to follow in North Korea’s footsteps and exit the NPT are growing louder. Many Iranians see the Israeli war on their country as further evidence that remaining an NPT signatory has brought Iran no security, only vulnerability to its enemies. An argument gaining traction in Iran is that only nuclear deterrence can keep the country safe.
Iran pulling out of the NPT “strikes me as being a predictable response to Israel and the United States,” said Dr Nader Hashemi, director of Georgetown University’s Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Center for Muslim-
“[Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei refused to make a decision, like so often, on the issue of nuclear deterrence and now they are paying the price of hovering in the worst of two worlds. But going forward I think it’s safe to say the choice has been made for them -
*Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics
Follow him on X: @GiorgioCafiero