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[OPINION] Erdoğan’s gamble to hollow out the main opposition party
10.08.2025
By Turkish Minute
Source:https://thecradle.co/articles/greece-pledges-to-block-turkiye-from-eu-defense-program-over-war-threat
Ömer Murat*
The appointment of a court-ordered trustee to the Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) İstanbul provincial headquarters has shaken Turkey’s political landscape. Widely condemned as a violation of the rule of law, the move saw CHP politician Gürsel Tekin, perceived as close to the government, march into the party’s İstanbul headquarters backed by 5,000 police officers. It was less an administrative adjustment than a show of force, another step in the erosion of Turkey’s democratic institutions.
At first glance this intervention, engineered under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s watch, appears aimed at neutralizing the CHP, which surged to first place in the latest local elections. The goal seems clear: Weaken the party, strip it of its newfound vigor and restore it to the docile opposition role it played under former leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
Yet the strategy may boomerang. For two decades Erdoğan has thrived on polarization, portraying the CHP as an out-of-touch elite standing against “national values.” This narrative of “us versus them” has been central to consolidating his conservative base. But a hollowed-out CHP would leave Erdoğan without a credible opponent, depriving him of the foil that has kept his movement energized.
This is precisely Erdoğan’s dilemma. Popular figures like Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş pose a real threat in any presidential race. Unable to lure the party back into complacency, Erdoğan has turned to blunt-force tactics: reshaping the opposition into a neutered entity that grants him legitimacy while posing no real danger. He does not want the CHP destroyed, only domesticated.
But this is a dangerous gamble. Forcing leadership changes through the state apparatus risks alienating CHP supporters entirely. If they abandon the party, the familiar polarization mechanism collapses and with it, a cornerstone of Erdoğan’s political survival.
From escalating crises to bending laws, Erdoğan’s history is rife with high-stakes gambles. But such gambits have limits. With Turks enduring economic hardship, high inflation and shrinking livelihoods, the sense that elections no longer matter could spark deep public anger. The ballot box has long held sacred meaning in Turkish politics; undermining it carries explosive risks.
Polls already suggest waning support for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Desperate moves to weaken the opposition may only deepen economic instability and accelerate public discontent. A regime built on perpetual tension may unravel without a viable rival to demonize.
Still, CHP supporters must also face hard truths. Many CHP supporters have disparaged AKP voters as “sheep” for overlooking corruption and deceit. Yet, they tolerated similar blind loyalty under Kılıçdaroğlu. For 13 years, he led the party despite repeated losses. In 2017 he failed to challenge irregularities in a referendum decided by 2.5 million unstamped ballots. In 2023 he insisted on running for president himself, sidelining stronger candidates like İmamoğlu and Yavaş, and handing Erdoğan another term.
Meanwhile, CHP insiders and pundits justified complacency during Turkey’s authoritarian downturn with slogans such as “First the Gülenists, then the AKP.” By this they meant let the government finish crushing the Gülen movement — a faith-based civic group that for nearly a decade has faced an unprecedented purge and persecution which human rights observers say bears many hallmarks of a campaign of collective annihilation — and only afterward would it be time to challenge Erdoğan’s rule. Now that the Gülen movement has been decimated, it has become clear that the state’s next target is the CHP itself, captured in the new refrain, “First the Gülenists, then the CHP.” The credibility of those who once counseled patience, and of the strategy itself, lies in ruins.
Trustee appointments will not extend Erdoğan’s reign. They may hasten its end. A Turkey without a real opposition is not sustainable, and an Erdoğan without the CHP is almost unimaginable. Turkey is at a tipping point, and the curtain may well fall on the strongman himself.
* Ömer Murat is a political analyst and a former Turkish diplomat who currently lives in Germany.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Turkish Minute.
10.08.2025
By Turkish Minute
Source:https://thecradle.co/articles/greece-
Ömer Murat*
The appointment of a court-
At first glance this intervention, engineered under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s watch, appears aimed at neutralizing the CHP, which surged to first place in the latest local elections. The goal seems clear: Weaken the party, strip it of its newfound vigor and restore it to the docile opposition role it played under former leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
Yet the strategy may boomerang. For two decades Erdoğan has thrived on polarization, portraying the CHP as an out-
This is precisely Erdoğan’s dilemma. Popular figures like Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş pose a real threat in any presidential race. Unable to lure the party back into complacency, Erdoğan has turned to blunt-
But this is a dangerous gamble. Forcing leadership changes through the state apparatus risks alienating CHP supporters entirely. If they abandon the party, the familiar polarization mechanism collapses and with it, a cornerstone of Erdoğan’s political survival.
From escalating crises to bending laws, Erdoğan’s history is rife with high-
Polls already suggest waning support for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Desperate moves to weaken the opposition may only deepen economic instability and accelerate public discontent. A regime built on perpetual tension may unravel without a viable rival to demonize.
Still, CHP supporters must also face hard truths. Many CHP supporters have disparaged AKP voters as “sheep” for overlooking corruption and deceit. Yet, they tolerated similar blind loyalty under Kılıçdaroğlu. For 13 years, he led the party despite repeated losses. In 2017 he failed to challenge irregularities in a referendum decided by 2.5 million unstamped ballots. In 2023 he insisted on running for president himself, sidelining stronger candidates like İmamoğlu and Yavaş, and handing Erdoğan another term.
Meanwhile, CHP insiders and pundits justified complacency during Turkey’s authoritarian downturn with slogans such as “First the Gülenists, then the AKP.” By this they meant let the government finish crushing the Gülen movement — a faith-
Trustee appointments will not extend Erdoğan’s reign. They may hasten its end. A Turkey without a real opposition is not sustainable, and an Erdoğan without the CHP is almost unimaginable. Turkey is at a tipping point, and the curtain may well fall on the strongman himself.
* Ömer Murat is a political analyst and a former Turkish diplomat who currently lives in Germany.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Turkish Minute.